Top 10 safe haven currencies
For CurrencyTransfer
During times of economic uncertainty, geopolitical turmoil or market volatility, investors often turn to a stable and reliable store of value to protect assets from potential losses - especially with riskier investments, where potential losses can be much greater. Safe haven currencies provide a more reliable store of value during turbulent economic conditions, with investors flocking to a particular handful of currencies in order to safeguard their assets.
What is a Safe Haven Currency?
A safe haven currency is any globally traded currency that is perceived as a stable store of value, expected to hold or increase its value during periods of economic turmoil. Safe haven currencies have a number of key characteristics contributing to their reputation, including:
Economic stability
Countries with safe haven currencies tend to have a strong economy that is diversified and robust. Key details to look out for are consistent growth, low levels of unemployment and high productivity. A government wanting to develop a safe haven currency needs to manage their fiscal policy well, controlling levels of debt, budget deficits and rates of inflation in a responsible manner.
Politics
A government perceived as ‘stable’ on the global stage bolsters their currency’s reputation. This is achieved with low levels of corruption, and an unlikelihood of drastic policy change or major political upheaval. Confidence is only improved by transparent institutions, adhering to the rule of law and maintaining standards of enforcement.
Liquidity
A safe haven currency is not plagued by issues of low liquidity - large, developed markets support an ease of trading that avoids significant price fluctuation. Their global access and ease of trading contributes to deeper liquidity.
Global Usage
The large quantities of these currencies held by central banks in foreign exchange reserves is a reflection of their stability and reliability. Commonly used in international trade, this frequency of use around the globe further solidifies a sense of trustworthiness.
Historical Proof
A proven track record of solid performance in turbulent conditions increases the perception of safety, despite the common mantra in financial discourse that past performance doesn’t guarantee future returns. However, it is undeniable that a historical reputation of safety provides psychological comfort to investors, upholding the ‘safe haven’ label of these currencies.
Top 10 Safe Haven Currencies
US Dollar (USD)
The US Dollar has global reserve currency status, a high level of dominance in international trade, backed by the largest economy in the world. The large size of GDP, inflation and unemployment rates contribute to a safe haven perception of the dollar, backed up by strong performance in past economic crises.
2. Swiss Franc (CHF)
Switzerland’s historic policy of neutrality on the political stage has sheltered the country from the worst of major conflicts and geopolitical turmoil, being considered one of the most stable political environments in the world. Boasting a well diversified economy of banking, pharmaceuticals, manufacturing and technology, Switzerland has maintained a strong regulatory framework, garnering a reputation for being a wholly secure place to hold assets.
3. Euro (EUR)
Despite some analysts voicing concerns over the political stability of the European Union, the Euro has consistently proved itself as a major player in the field of safe haven currencies. Representing a large and diverse economic area, with support from the European Central Bank, the Euro has maintained strong performances during financial crises of member states.
4. Japanese Yen (JPY)
Boasting the third-largest economy in the world, Japan is characterised by a high level of technological advancement and diverse industrial base. The fact Japan often achieves a trade surplus is a major contributor to the stability of its currency. With stable governance and low inflation, the Yen is attractive for borrowing in low-risk periods, and repaying in high-risk periods. Japan also holds one of the largest gold reserves in the world.
5. British Pound (GBP)
In the face of various political upheavals including Brexit, the British Pound has remained relatively stable, even after the 2008 financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic. With London positioned as the leading global financial centre, the UK’s financial service sector is highly sophisticated and well-regulated, contributing to investor confidence.
6. Canadian Dollar (CAD)
Rich in natural resources including oil, natural gas, minerals and timber, Canada is one of the largest economies in the world. The abundance of resources in particular is a major support for the economy and currency. Exports are particularly effective due to close proximity with the US. Global trade is equally strong, with diversified relationships reducing the vulnerability of disruptions to a single trade partner. However, a dependence on commodity prices and moderate liquidity limits prevents us from ranking the currency higher.
7. Australian Dollar (AUD)
Another major exporter of natural resources, Australia and its dollar benefits from periods of high demand for iron ore, coal and natural gas. Combined with a stable political system, Australia’s established democratic framework bolsters investor confidence. However, Australia is faced with similar limitations of commodity prices to Canada, as well as a close link to the Asian economy. With mixed historical performance and lower liquidity in global markets, the attractiveness of the AUD can be impacted during extreme market turbulence.
8. Norwegian Krone (NOK)
While not typically regarded as a classic safe haven currency, the Norwegian Krone boasts certain quality attributes of a safe haven currency. A strong economy in oil, gas, shipping and maritime industry, as well as a substantial sovereign wealth fund can provide a buffer against economic shocks. Again however, the currency is limited in its capacity as an absolute safe haven due to the fluctuations of oil prices and relatively low liquidity.
9. Singapore Dollar (SGD)
A major global financial centre, strong and efficient government strengthens investor confidence. Furthermore, Singapore employs an independent monetary authority, separating monetary policy and maintaining price stability. However despite these benefits, Singapore’s location in a geopolitically sensitive region have affected its stability. For example, during the COVID-19 pandemic, the SGD experience volatility as investors opted for more traditional safe haven currencies.
10. Hong Kong Dollar (HKD)
Another global financial hub with strong economic fundamentals, Hong Kong is characterised by a high standard of living, with particular emphasis on the services sector. The HKD is pegged to the USD, providing stability and credibility. However, recent political tensions and unrest in Hong Kong with its relationship to mainland China have posed risks to the HKD, affecting investor confidence. The peg to the USD means the HKD is subject to any changes in US monetary policy. Pegged currencies can also be under threat from speculative attacks if the market believes the peg is under threat.
For more currency news and insight into the ever-changing world of currency, make sure to stay up to date with our Expert Analysis, as well as our Market Commentary.